Hi everyone!

Can you believe there are only three days left? We've quadrupled our original goal, added more stretch goals than we thought were possible, and may unlock even more in the final days. Currently we need only another 150 backers or so to unlock the sticker sheet... and possibly multiple sticker sheets!

In fact, the campaign has moved so quickly that we've barely had an opportunity to share all of the new art from the book, which is why we're revealing the full versions of three new paintings today! Plus, we have several new Community Art Gallery submissions, so keep scrolling for those as well.

Heads up that the third painting is a spoiler, although it's been almost forty years, so... just wait until we tell you about Luke's father!

You can still grab the line art and participate here.

Hi everyone!

As we enter the final four days of the campaign, with over $400,000 raised, we're thrilled to share a massive round of stretch goals and upgrades!

If you want to guarantee that you can get a copy of this massively-upgraded book, make sure you pledge by Friday of this week.

The good news is that we heard back from the manufacturer and a number of stretch goals are now confirmed as feasible (or already unlocked!)


$350,000 - TIMELINE POSTER (UNLOCKED)

The printed poster CAN be folded and added to the box! If the art is done on time for manufacturing, this will upgrade from a digital item to a physical item for all Deluxe Heralds backers. We're leaving the print-version caveat in place because four-thousand years of history is a LOT and we want to get it right without delaying the campaign.


$375,000 - 2nd BOOK RIBBON (UNLOCKED)

The book now ships with a second satin ribbon... and you all can vote for your favorite color below!


$400,000 - DIE-CUT & FOILED ARROW CODE BOOKMARK (UNLOCKED)

A new die-cut bookmark with blue foil, along with an Arrow Code guide. There's a lot of discussion happening to update the Arrow Code, so thanks for your patience while we make sure that the design perfectly matches Misty's vision.


$425,000 - 6"x9" VALDEMAR STICKERS (LOCKED)

Fans have been asking for years, and at $425k it's happening. We have four sticker sheet concepts, including Lindsey's redrawn versions of classic Companion emojis from the Discord, plus crests and Companion designs from Care and Larry.

For now this is one sheet of stickers... but we'll watch progress carefully and have mini-unlock goals to add even more stickers to this stretch goal.




$450,000 - 6"x9" FOIL POSTCARD (LOCKED)

Okay, this thing is so big that it's hardly a postcard any more. Regardless, this reproduction of the Deluxe Arrows cover, on 300gsm C1S stock, will be included at $450k.


$475,000 - FULL COLOR INTERIOR BOX (LOCKED)

There's a blank box that sits underneath the Circuit Journal in the Deluxe Heralds package. This stretch goal turns it into a little treasure chest, with full color printing. What will you do with it? We don't know, but it sure will be pretty.


$500,000 - ALL SCHOLARSHIPS FUNDED (LOCKED)

Currently generous backers have funded about half of the scholarship requests that we've received. At $500k we have enough margin to cover the difference and make sure that every single scholarship request is fulfilled.

Hi everyone!

Ben here with a status report.

With seven days to go, I've seen a growing concern on the Discord as people observed the number of available Deluxe Heralds units dipping below 1000. Fans are starting to worry that we might sell out. First, the quick answer, then I'll go into detail for people who like detailed explanations.

tl;dr –

We can manufacture up to 5000 copies of Deluxe Heralds. We need to keep at least 250 books in reserve for replacing anything lost or damaged during shipping. In the very best case scenario, 4750 books are available as pledge items in this campaign.

I have just increased the unit cap on this campaign from 4000 to 4500, and I'll raise it by another 250 if absolutely necessary. This means that 1605/4750 books remain (34%). It is possible, but not likely, that we will sell out. If you're risk-averse, I would mildly recommend an earlier pledge, rather than waiting to the last minute.

If you've spent time around crowdfunding campaigns, you've probably seen various trackers that claim to project how well a campaign will perform. One of the better ones is BackerTracker. Here's the page for our campaign.



These trackers, while useful, don't have access to internal projections and metrics. For example, they don't take into account performance of past campaigns, the size of a mailing list, fan enthusiasm, or (crucially) payday cadences. It's long been my practice to end campaigns on common paydays, as a request from fans over the years who want that guarantee that funds will be available when charges process.

Let's break down the factors that affect campaign performance.

ADVERTISING

Trackers don't account for the variance between organic and paid leads, and how that ties into ad spending. I've only recently started using paid ads for campaigns, because 1) the numbers finally justified a limited ad spend, and 2) I receive SO MANY emails when campaigns end from fans who didn't know they were happening. Reaching fans who aren't already in our active fandom is exceptionally hard. Millions of people have read and loved Misty's books, but aren't connected to here anywhere online. Ads are one way to find the people who want to be found, and hopefully a way to decrease the sad "I MISSED OUT!" messages.

Our ad spending for campaigns typically is the highest at the beginning and the end. We base it on a metric called ROAS (return on ad spend), which measures how many pledge dollars each dollar spent brings in. My number one, highest priority is to maximize Misty's royalties, because the primary purpose of these campaigns is to keep her and Larry in good health, with their bills and health insurance paid, so they can focus on writing and art.

I've built a suite of custom tools for projections and campaign management over the years. Here's what it's feeding back to me:



So I could be asking our marketing partners at BackerKit to spend at a higher rate. Based on the current ROAS, that would absolutely sell more books and bring us closer to the 4750 sales limit.

Advertising is likely to push our $504,000 projection higher than expected, if we choose to approve that spend. Let's say that we approve spending to bring in around 200 more backers.


ORGANIC REACH (THE POWER OF FANDOM)

You know what's more effective than advertising? Enthusiastic word-of-mouth in the fandom. And, uh.... that's happening. A lot. What that enthusiasm indicates is that we're likely to see a rise in organic pledges over the last few days. While I can't turn observation into hard numbers, sixteen years of crowdfunding experience tells me that the tracker may be underestimating that kind of demand by $10,000-$15,000. That's another 100-150 backers.


INTERNAL STATS

The trackers also don't have access to our Backerkit Dashboard, which tells quite a story:



First, the returning backer rate isn't correct because we just migrated Misty's followers to a dedicated account in BackerKit, so that emails and updates weren't mixing the ZOE audience (like for Gamers and JourneyQuest) with all of you. As many of you who have been with us for three campaigns know, you do exist, even if the dashboard doesn't recognize it.

However, the rest of the numbers are accurate. The Existing Audience (people who did back or follow prior campaigns) has a high conversion rate of 77.1%, and that's before the campaign has even ended. That's 497 people who are extremely likely to pledge before the campaign ends, because a) you received awesome rewards before, and b) you've been around enough to know that you can apply for and receive a scholarship if your financial situation is rough this time around.

We also have a total audience of over 9000 people. This includes email list signups, campaign follows, campaign pledges, and so on. One-third of the audience has pledged so far, with two thirds of the books already reserved. Call it 503 more people. That brings us to 1000 total from the audience.

Added to our earlier numbers, that puts us at 1300 more backers for 1750 more books. Great, right?

This analysis would result in a higher-end projection of $529,690, about $25,000 above the tracker.



So based on the numbers, I can predict that we'll still have a buffer at the high end of expected performance. Everyone gets a book, and nobody misses out. In theory.

BUT... this is crowdfunding AND this is Mercedes Lackey we're talking about. Ultimately, we can guess and predict, but nobody knows what's going to happen. We might be at the end of demand and pledges will tricking in for the final week. We might be facing a huge upwards curve on the tail end of the campaign, with a Backer Train that runs overnight and everything sells out.

Please don't panic (especially scholarship recipients: I keep books set aside for every applicant, it's okay, don't worry!) However, my mild recommendation holds: if you want to be sure you get a copy, or if your own analysis suggests that we might sell out, then you might want not to wait to pledge unit the final day, purely for the peace of mind.

Okay, that's enough braining for one day. I'm heading outside for a few minutes to enjoy the sunshine and touch grass, but will be around later to answer questions in the comments.

- Ben

Hi everyone!

We have such a special treat for all of you today: a twenty-four minute early preview of some of the songs from S. J. Tucker's "The Music of Valdemar" album.

At first we were going to put the video at the end, but then we realized it would be more fun to let you listen while you read!

As many of you know, Misty was writing filk lyrics long before she became a novelist. Her songs have been a part of the books from the very beginning, printed in the back of each novel and speaking to the legends, emotions, and experiences of the people inhabiting her worlds.

It was inevitable that many of these songs would be set to music. Numerous albums were released over the following decades, which have become a beloved part of the fandom.

But the rights to those albums were held by multiple creators. Some of those creators are still with us, but time has taken its toll over forty years and others have passed on. The result is that rights to the old music are now impossible to recover.

"The Music of Valdemar" is a multi-year project by Mercedes Lackey, S. J. Tucker (Sooj), and Ben Dobyns to write and record new music with clear rights, so that Misty's original lyrics can live on in a new form.

HOW IS THE MUSIC DEVELOPED?

Misty's core vision is to present the music as an in-world artifact, asking Sooj and Ben to imagine how each the songs might sound in taverns, homes, and palaces across Velgarth, from the lullabies of the Holderkin to the ballads played on My Lady.

Their work has been supported by a number of fans, who have provided in-depth notes and research on real-world influences and their ties to Rethwellan, Menmellith, Karse, and other musical traditions. There's also been a lively discussion about whether gryphons would have electronic guitars, because they're so heavy metal. (They wouldn't.)

From there, Ben created a first round of compositions in a Valdemar folk style, drawing heavily on pentatonic Appalachian modalities. They then met with Sooj for a week-long working session to develop a process for writing, arranging, and recording the rest of the music. This session introduced more complex "synthetic" modes to represent particular regional sounds, which drift in and out of the pieces, as illustrated in the "super locrian" phrase that begins "Laws" (below). From there, Sooj and Ben have collaborated remotely to bring each piece to life, using a combination of scratch recordings and lead sheets.

Those lead sheets will appear in the music section of Deluxe Heralds as well!

Here's an example of an in-progress lead sheet:


HOW IS THE MUSIC PRODUCED?

Sooj starts by taking the time to "become friends" with the song, finding where and how it speaks to her. From there, she creates an arrangement and practices until she's ready for the recording studio. Ginger Doss, the music producer, records the studio sessions, layering in instruments and vocals. Those recordings go back to Ben and Misty for review, then when everyone has signed off Ginger proceeds to mastering.


WHERE ARE THE REST OF THE SONGS?

They're in progress! "An Arrow in Flight" is at first review stage, for example, and "Laws" is at mastering.

One particular two-part epic is the most complicated of the bunch and will be recorded last, since Ben is still composing, but most everything else is in some stage of learning and production.


WHAT ABOUT PHYSICAL COPIES?

Once the digital album is completed and released to backers, Sooj will begin work on a public release on Spotify, YouTube Music, and Bandcamp. We're hopeful that CDs will be available via the S.J. Tucker Bandcamp at that time!


WHEN WILL IT BE RELEASED?

When it's done! We started work on this project during the Grandmaster campaign, which raised some, but not all, of the funds that we needed to record a complete album. This campaign completes the necessary funding!

We'll release songs to backers as they're completed, but we're not setting a specific time for the album release. Very generally, each song has taken 1-2 months... and we're pretty intent on doing a LOT of songs.